Re: [Salon] The Israeli war on Hamas from a geopolitical perspective

I don't think I have ever previously posted a response to someone else's posting on the salon list, but Gilbert Doctorow's comments on the latest twist in the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians led me to send him an offlist comment. On reflection, I think I should post that comment for others to read. So, here it is.

Gilbert:

I think you are correct to state that this war puts paid to israeli-Saudi normalization but that was never a real prospect. The Israeli ministry of strategic affairs (i.e. "hasbara" or propaganda) has touted normalization as a "game changer for the Middle East." Not so. It would, however, be a game changer for both Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu in their respective domestic politics. But I don't think the motivation was as you conjecture. This is more like the Tet offensive in Vietnam than anything else.

The Hamas attack on Israel was part jailbreak (from Gaza, the world's largest prison since the destruction of the Warsaw Ghetto) but more than that it was a revolt of the hopeless by the hopeless for the hopeless. Sometimes suffering becomes so unbearable that anything goes. Martyrdom is fatal but politically empowering. And reminders of unpalatable strategic realities can be useful. With this well-planned and executed surprise attack on Israel, Hamas:

-- mounts a dramatic response to the extremist anti-Arab cabinet assembled by Netanyahu, to the settler invasions of the al Aqsa mosque, and to the pogroms under way in the West Bank, as neither the West nor the Arab states have done;

-- establishes itself as the legitimate voice of Palestinian nationalism, while discrediting Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, and the Palestinian Authority, all of which serve as "kapos" for the Israeli occupation;

-- gains credibility and marshalls support in both the Arab and Muslim worlds as well as in the global Palestinian diaspora;

-- illustrates the bankruptcy of U.S. and other great power policies with regard to Israel's escalating oppression and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians;

-- achieves revenge for Israeli violence against Palestinian civilians;

-- discredits the Abraham Accords, by which Israel sought to evade any reckoning with the Palestinians, and, as you suggest, aborts any possibility that normalization (as opposed to piecemeal transactionalism) will occur between Saudi Arabia and Israel;

-- ingratiates itself with Iran and other anti-Israeli forces in West Asia like Hezbollah (with which it nothing in common except a common Israeli enemy);

-- highlights the fecklessness of the governments of Egypt, Jordan, and other de facto collaborators with the Israeli occupation that will be reflected in popular pressure on them; and

-- gains hostages to use as bargaining chips for the future release of Palestinian political prisoners by Israel.

The geopolitical dangers are that the war may widen to include Lebanon and Syria as well as 1960s-style terrorism against Jewish and other supporters of Zionism abroad, that Netanyahu may see the political answer to the perceived failure of Mossad or Shin Bet to predict Hamas' attack as a justification for blaming and attacking Iran, and that Israel's declared intention and attempts to replicate the allied demolition of Dresden in Gaza may lead to it being called to account internationally.

For the time being, however, the sense of peril that ordinary Israelis now feel has had the effect of bringing protests against the destruction of the rule of law in Israel to a halt and replacing it with national unity against the Palestinians. The ongoing exodus of Israelis from their country will accelerate. The idiotic comment a week ago by Jake Sullivan that the Middle East had reached a reassuring level of calm just exposes yet another delusion of American diplomacy, paralleling the unrealism of commentary on Ukraine, China, Iran, etc. Sympathy for Israel is now limited to societies where Islamophobia has become entrenched, though Palestinian atrocities have the potential to restore it. Reflexive U.S. support for Israel's "right to defend itself" will be read internationally as support for Israel's continuing oppression, ethnic cleansing, and periodic massacre of Palestinians. There will be global backlash against this position, as there has been against our position on the Ukraine war.

Hamas will lose the military battle but it may well win the war.

Chas

On Sun, Oct 8, 2023 at 11:14 AM Gilbert Doctorow via Salon <salon@listserve.com> wrote:

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/10/08/the-israeli-war-on-hamas-from-a-geopolitical-perspective/

The Israeli war on Hamas from a geopolitical perspective

The devastating attack on Israel by Hamas yesterday and Israel’s declaration of total war have been the featured news items in Western media today. Some of what the talking heads are saying to CNN, Euronews and the BBC is perceptive and valuable, much more so than any of their commentary on the war in Ukraine, which is my primary focus. I think that I am impressed not merely because the less you know about any given subject, the easier it is to take seriously what mainstream presents. No, what I have heard about the failures of Israeli intelligence on these stations has made good sense and seems credible.

I ventured to say a few words about the conflict on WION Indian television earlier today, because I was given the opportunity to talk about it from the geopolitical perspective, which got relatively little attention in Western mainstream. The link to that interview will be posted below when it becomes available.

There are, incidentally, two markers that would justify giving the geopolitical perspective more thought. One is the news that the head of the Arab League flew to Moscow today for talks with Foreign Minister Lavrov. The other is the statement from an official in the Russia-controlled Donbas that NATO arms delivered earlier in the year to Ukraine were resold and likely are being used against Israel in the war there now under way. That brings up the remarks of Benjamin Netanyahu this past July that the Palestinians were known to have procured anti-tank weapons, presumably Javelins, from the Ukrainians. That is not an irrelevancy, because the Israelis will have to move armor into the Gaza Strip to take control and this type of NATO weaponry could inflict great damage on IDF personnel and equipment.

*****

Mainstream commentators with some military experience have pointed out that an attack like this one must have taken a long time in preparation, perhaps as long as a year. And so the question arises, why now?

One clue mentioned by commentators is that it has come just after the Jewish High Holy Days. That might be a clue if we consider that this Hamas attack is the greatest threat to Israeli security since the Yom Kippur War back in 1973, which also was so damaging because of failures by Israeli intelligence to see it coming.

However, I believe the timing was driven by something entirely different, something purely in the domain of geopolitics: the attack was staged to disrupt the ongoing rapprochement of Saudi Arabia and Israel under the direction of Washington. If the parties succeeded in concluding the agreement on normalization of relations, then that would put in jeopardy all hopes of the Palestinians to enjoy the support of their Arab brethren in the region for realization of their political ambitions for statehood. Meanwhile, if there should be a Saudi-Israeli agreement, then the power balance in the region between Iran and Saudi Arabia would shift significantly in Saudis’ favor, since the conditions they were negotiating with Washington to make peace with Israel included declaration of a formal security treaty with the United States and access to U.S. nuclear technology up to and including enrichment of uranium. In other words, the Saudis would close in on the current Iranian advantage of being a hair’s breadth away from possessing bombs.

Under present conditions of all-out war by Israel on Hamas and the prospect of a bloody incursion into Gaza by the Israeli Defense Force, it is unthinkable for Saudi Arabia to proceed with normalization of relations. This means, in effect, that a serious blow has been dealt to the foreign policy of the Biden administration. This failure comes on top of the Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco. The net effect will not only be felt once the electoral campaign for the presidency gets underway later this autumn, but will be felt immediately insofar as it weakens the president’s hand in his ongoing arm-wrestling with Congress over the 2024 budget and in particular over funding for Ukraine. If the allegations that NATO weapons have come into the hands of Hamas via Ukraine, then the consequences of uncontrolled delivery of weapons to Kiev will be on display for everyone to see.

Failure breeds failures, and you cannot dress up this new pig in the Middle East policy of Biden and Blinken and Sullivan with lipstick.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

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